Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
